{"title":"Signal track record","live":{"7d":{"signalsLogged":4051,"directionalSignals":2558,"byHorizon":{"5m":{"evaluated":2370,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":48.3,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.0328},"15m":{"evaluated":2162,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":57.4,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.0477},"1h":{"evaluated":1762,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":53.9,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.0354},"24h":{"evaluated":0,"sufficientSample":false,"hitRatePercent":null,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":null}},"bySignal1h":{"BULLISH_ACCUMULATION":{"evaluated":44,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":43.2,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.1724},"BUYING_ACTIVITY":{"evaluated":517,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":51.1,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.0496},"CAPITULATION":{"evaluated":41,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":56.1,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.5297},"DISTRIBUTION":{"evaluated":224,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":59.4,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.172},"MOMENTUM_ACCELERATION":{"evaluated":85,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":36.5,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.1713},"MOMENTUM_EXHAUSTION":{"evaluated":120,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":52.5,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.0514},"POTENTIAL_BREAKOUT":{"evaluated":241,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":51.5,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.0754},"SELLING_ACTIVITY":{"evaluated":375,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":62.4,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.1864},"UNUSUAL_ACTIVITY":{"evaluated":115,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":50.4,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.0381}},"calibration1hByConfidence":{"0-40":{"evaluated":620,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":54.8,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.005},"40-60":{"evaluated":478,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":56.3,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.1485},"60-80":{"evaluated":178,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":51.1,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.0195},"80-100":{"evaluated":486,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":51.2,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.0042}},"periodDays":7,"window":"5m","algoVersion":"flow-v2-2026-09-25","algoNote":"flow-v2: buy pressure from organic flow only (arbitrage, MEV and two-sided bots excluded), pool mid prices, seasonal volume baselines; deployed 2026-09-25.","liveSince":"2026-09-25T08:33:00Z","method":"Live record: every change of the published signal is logged with its price; hit = the price moved in the signal's direction after the horizon (last trade price per minute, pool prices). Neutral signals are logged but not scored. Returns without a trade within 15 minutes of the horizon are not evaluable. Hit rates are shown only from 30 evaluated signals (sufficientSample)."},"30d":{"signalsLogged":4051,"directionalSignals":2558,"byHorizon":{"5m":{"evaluated":2370,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":48.3,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.0328},"15m":{"evaluated":2162,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":57.4,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.0477},"1h":{"evaluated":1762,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":53.9,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.0354},"24h":{"evaluated":0,"sufficientSample":false,"hitRatePercent":null,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":null}},"bySignal1h":{"BULLISH_ACCUMULATION":{"evaluated":44,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":43.2,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.1724},"BUYING_ACTIVITY":{"evaluated":517,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":51.1,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.0496},"CAPITULATION":{"evaluated":41,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":56.1,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.5297},"DISTRIBUTION":{"evaluated":224,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":59.4,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.172},"MOMENTUM_ACCELERATION":{"evaluated":85,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":36.5,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.1713},"MOMENTUM_EXHAUSTION":{"evaluated":120,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":52.5,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.0514},"POTENTIAL_BREAKOUT":{"evaluated":241,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":51.5,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.0754},"SELLING_ACTIVITY":{"evaluated":375,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":62.4,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.1864},"UNUSUAL_ACTIVITY":{"evaluated":115,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":50.4,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.0381}},"calibration1hByConfidence":{"0-40":{"evaluated":620,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":54.8,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.005},"40-60":{"evaluated":478,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":56.3,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.1485},"60-80":{"evaluated":178,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":51.1,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.0195},"80-100":{"evaluated":486,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":51.2,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.0042}},"periodDays":30,"window":"5m","algoVersion":"flow-v2-2026-09-25","algoNote":"flow-v2: buy pressure from organic flow only (arbitrage, MEV and two-sided bots excluded), pool mid prices, seasonal volume baselines; deployed 2026-09-25.","liveSince":"2026-09-25T08:33:00Z","method":"Live record: every change of the published signal is logged with its price; hit = the price moved in the signal's direction after the horizon (last trade price per minute, pool prices). Neutral signals are logged but not scored. Returns without a trade within 15 minutes of the horizon are not evaluable. Hit rates are shown only from 30 evaluated signals (sufficientSample)."},"90d":{"signalsLogged":4051,"directionalSignals":2558,"byHorizon":{"5m":{"evaluated":2370,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":48.3,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.0328},"15m":{"evaluated":2162,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":57.4,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.0477},"1h":{"evaluated":1762,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":53.9,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.0354},"24h":{"evaluated":0,"sufficientSample":false,"hitRatePercent":null,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":null}},"bySignal1h":{"BULLISH_ACCUMULATION":{"evaluated":44,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":43.2,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.1724},"BUYING_ACTIVITY":{"evaluated":517,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":51.1,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.0496},"CAPITULATION":{"evaluated":41,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":56.1,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.5297},"DISTRIBUTION":{"evaluated":224,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":59.4,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.172},"MOMENTUM_ACCELERATION":{"evaluated":85,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":36.5,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.1713},"MOMENTUM_EXHAUSTION":{"evaluated":120,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":52.5,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.0514},"POTENTIAL_BREAKOUT":{"evaluated":241,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":51.5,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.0754},"SELLING_ACTIVITY":{"evaluated":375,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":62.4,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.1864},"UNUSUAL_ACTIVITY":{"evaluated":115,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":50.4,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.0381}},"calibration1hByConfidence":{"0-40":{"evaluated":620,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":54.8,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.005},"40-60":{"evaluated":478,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":56.3,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":0.1485},"60-80":{"evaluated":178,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":51.1,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.0195},"80-100":{"evaluated":486,"sufficientSample":true,"hitRatePercent":51.2,"averageReturnInSignalDirectionPercent":-0.0042}},"periodDays":90,"window":"5m","algoVersion":"flow-v2-2026-09-25","algoNote":"flow-v2: buy pressure from organic flow only (arbitrage, MEV and two-sided bots excluded), pool mid prices, seasonal volume baselines; deployed 2026-09-25.","liveSince":"2026-09-25T08:33:00Z","method":"Live record: every change of the published signal is logged with its price; hit = the price moved in the signal's direction after the horizon (last trade price per minute, pool prices). Neutral signals are logged but not scored. Returns without a trade within 15 minutes of the horizon are not evaluable. Hit rates are shown only from 30 evaluated signals (sufficientSample)."}},"interimBacktest":{"label":"BACKTEST (walk-forward reconstruction from stored trades), not a live record","from":"2026-09-23T19:23:00Z","to":"2026-09-25T15:03:00Z","result":{"start":"2026-09-23T19:23:00Z","end":"2026-09-25T15:03:00Z","window":"5m","symbolsAnalyzed":100,"signalsEvaluated":2205,"minConfidence":60,"minBaselineSamples":10,"methodology":"walk-forward; baseline uses only preceding buckets; returns are measured after signal 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when perp open interest turns >= 65% one side with >= $100k open interest (again every 4h while it stays so); hit = the spot price (gold via GLD, oil via USO) moved against the crowd after the horizon. Hit rates need >= 30 evaluated events."},"detail":"/api/v1/intelligence/track-record?days=30&window=5m&symbol=ETHUSD (paid): per signal, per window, per symbol, and the latest signals with their forward returns","generatedAt":"2026-09-25T15:14:17.464298755Z"}